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Dialog Axiata PLC: research report

Fairly valuedbullishSep 18, 2026

Evidence points bullish because June profit nearly doubled as margins reached record like-for-like levels, overriding a fairly valued starting point. The catch is that 32.6% of trailing earnings came from that quarter.

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Why bullish

  • June-quarter net profit rose 99.7% year-on-year to LKR 10.1 billion as the net margin reached 21.0%.
  • Operating profit grew 45.7% while revenue rose 9.3%, showing that the profit improvement came primarily from a stronger operating business.
  • Total debt fell to LKR 76.5 billion at December 2025 from LKR 107.7 billion a year earlier.

Against this. The June quarter supplied 32.6% of trailing EPS, so the earnings supporting the current valuation rely heavily on one exceptional quarter.

Operating margin
27.0%sector 16.5%
from 20.2% a year earlier
Net margin
21.0%sector 12.5%
from 11.5% a year earlier, revenue +9.3%
Return on equity
34.7%
twelve months to Jun 30, 2026, unaudited
P/E
13.5sector 21.5
earnings Rs 3.36 per share
P/B
4.67sector 4.03
book Rs 9.68 per share
Dividend yield
6.42%sector 0.88%
86.3% of earnings paid out

Current figures, updated daily from filings to Jun 30, 2026. The report below was written on Sep 18, 2026. Sector figures are the median of 6 listed companies in the same sector.

Overview

Dialog is Sri Lanka's largest telecom provider, operating mobile, broadband, fixed-line, pay-TV, infrastructure and digital platforms. The central change is a marked recovery in operating profitability: the June quarter delivered the strongest like-for-like gross, operating and net margins in the available June-quarter record.

Price performance

At LKR 45.00 on 17 September 2026, the share had fallen 6.5% over one month against a 2.8% ASPI decline, but was up 35.6% over six months while the index fell 5.9%. The recent pullback follows a substantially stronger medium-term run rather than a weak six-month record.

The price stood 83.1% of the way from its 52-week low to high, while 60-day volatility was 22.6%, below its own one-year level of 28.8%. Trading activity was also quieter, with 20-day volume 11.3% below its 60-day comparison.

The three-year record contains three falls of 15% or more, the deepest 29%, which took nine months to recover. Median daily turnover was LKR 18.1 million; a LKR 1 million order is about 5.5% of what trades on a typical day, a noticeable part of a day's trading.

Valuation

The share trades at 13.4 times trailing earnings, meaning LKR 13.40 paid for each LKR 1 of the last twelve months' profit, below the sector median of 35.9 times. Its 4.65 times P/B means LKR 4.65 is paid for each LKR 1 of net assets, above the sector median of 3.46 times; a trailing ROE of 34.7% helps explain why the company commands a premium to book value.

The 6.4% dividend yield is above the sector median of 1.8%, but the trailing payout ratio is 86.3% and dividend cover is only 1.16 times. Recorded dividends rose from LKR 1.0 in 2024 to LKR 1.5 in 2025, while 2026 has recorded LKR 1.4 across two interim payments so far.

Against its own record, the current P/E is more expensive than at 8 of 12 year-ends and P/B is more expensive than at all 12. A buyer at this price is relying on the June quarter, which contributed 32.6% of trailing EPS; at its year-ago net margin, the same price would represent 15.7 times earnings rather than 13.4 times.

News and sentiment

Company coverage was normal over 90 days, with 34 material articles split between 16 positive, 14 negative and 4 neutral items, although the most recent 30-day flow was unusually quiet at one article against a monthly baseline of 3.5.

Results reported on 17 and 18 August confirmed first-half net profit of LKR 19.3 billion, up more than 100% year-on-year, alongside LKR 18.5 billion of digital infrastructure investment. On 21 May, the company proposed a long-term incentive plan covering up to 2% of issued shares, subject to shareholder and CSE approval. The LKR 0.70 second interim dividend went ex-dividend on 25 August, so a buyer today does not receive it.

Financials

June-quarter revenue rose 9.3% year-on-year to LKR 48.2 billion, while operating profit increased 45.7% to LKR 13.0 billion and net profit rose 99.7% to LKR 10.1 billion. Profit therefore grew far faster than the sales base, meaning the improvement was not simply an effect of charging more customers.

Gross margin widened from 53.0% to 56.9%, operating margin from 20.2% to 27.0%, and net margin from 11.5% to 21.0%. Each was the best of the seven June quarters on record, so this was the strongest like-for-like June operating outcome rather than merely a comparison with a weak prior quarter.

Below-the-line items took LKR 2.9 billion from operating profit, down from LKR 3.9 billion a year earlier, allowing more of the operating gain to reach shareholders. Equity increased to LKR 89.1 billion from LKR 78.2 billion, while the share count remained 9.2 billion in both June periods, so the profit advance was not mechanically diluted by a higher share count.

Risks

The main balance-sheet risk is short-term liquidity. At December 2025, the current ratio was 0.47 times, meaning the group had 47 cents of short-term assets, including receivables and inventories, for each LKR 1 of bills due within a year. Cash generated through the year and continued access to funding therefore matter more than usual.

Debt was LKR 76.5 billion, equal to 84.9% of owners' equity, although it had reduced materially from the prior year. Interest cover was 3.41 times, meaning operating profit covered the interest bill a little over three times rather than leaving a wide cushion. Annual cash conversion was 1.7 times, providing an important check that 2025 operating profit was backed by operating cash flow.

The proposed employee incentive plan could add up to 2% of issued shares if approved. Telecom operators also face tighter SIM identification requirements and elevated infrastructure costs in the current sector environment, though the supplied data does not quantify the effect on Dialog.

Outlook

As at 18 September 2026, the next defined event is the interim filing for the quarter ending 30 September, expected between 6 and 14 November. It will show whether the June quarter's record margin and profit outcome extended into the following quarter or was concentrated in June.

As at the same date, the data cannot determine the cost or revenue return from the LKR 18.5 billion first-half infrastructure investment. It also cannot determine whether the proposed employee incentive plan will receive the required approvals.

About this report. Generated on Sep 18, 2026 from market data up to Sep 17, 2026, 34 material news articles over 90 days and financials to Jun 30, 2026, and scored 56 of 100 on value (fairly valued) when it was written. Every figure is drawn from EquityLK's own data on this company. AI research can contain errors, so treat it as a starting point, not investment advice.

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