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Housing Development Finance Corporation Bank of Sri Lanka: research report

Moderately overvaluedbearishSep 23, 2026

Evidence points bearish because trailing earnings remain negative despite a reported first-half profit, leaving no usable P/E. The counterweight is a 0.54 times P/B below sector peers.

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Why bearish

  • The latest audited year produced a net loss of LKR 93 million and trailing EPS is -1.44, so the current price is not supported by positive trailing earnings.
  • The market-wide valuation score is 29 of 100, in the Moderately overvalued band, while the P/B is more expensive than 67% of days since February 2012.

Against this. A 22 September report put first-half profit after tax at LKR 105 million, showing that the bank had returned to profitability after the audited loss.

Operating margin
10.9%sector 40.4%
from 3.9% a year earlier
Net margin
4.6%sector 17.8%
from -0.5% a year earlier, revenue -8.5%
Return on equity
-1.2%sector 13.0%
full year to Dec 31, 2025
P/B
0.55sector 0.94
book Rs 118.33 per share
Dividend yield
0.00%sector 2.16%
trailing twelve months

Current figures, updated daily from filings to Jun 30, 2026. The report below was written on Sep 23, 2026. Sector figures are the median of 54 listed companies in the same sector.

Overview

HDFC is a state-backed specialist lender centred on housing finance, mortgage-related credit and consumer lending. The key change is a return to reported first-half profitability after an audited annual loss, although the latest filed quarter remains a much smaller earnings base than the bank achieved in earlier years.

Price performance

At LKR 63.30 on 23 September 2026, the share had fallen 11.7% over three months against a 5.2% fall in the ASPI. The share sits 48.4% of the way from its 52-week low to high, placing it near the middle of its own annual range rather than at either extreme.

Recent volatility and trading activity are both below HDFC's own one-year and 60-day norms. Liquidity is limited: a LKR 1 million order is more than everything that trades on a typical day, at 165.5% of median daily turnover. The three-year record contains several sizeable retreats, including an unrecovered pullback from May 2026.

Valuation

The P/B of 0.54 means the market values the bank at 54 cents for each rupee of net assets, below the finance-sector median of 0.96 times. It ranks at the 12th percentile among 53 sector peers, so the shares are inexpensive against peer book-value multiples.

That peer comparison conflicts with HDFC's own record: the P/B is more expensive than 67% of days since February 2012. The market-wide score is 29 of 100 on price against book value, earnings and dividends, placing it in the Moderately overvalued band because the book-value strength is offset by negative earnings and no dividend. A P/E cannot be used while trailing EPS is negative, and no dividend is on record in the last two years.

News and sentiment

Company coverage was normal rather than unusually active, with six material articles in the past 90 days: two positive and four neutral. The most consequential update, reported on 22 September, gave first-half profit after tax of LKR 105 million and said profit before tax rose 85% year-on-year.

The news is newer than the June filing, so it supersedes the earlier quarterly picture on the direction of earnings. A new chairman was reported on 14 August, following several pro-tem chairman appointments.

Financials

June-quarter revenue fell 8.5% year-on-year to LKR 732 million, but operating profit rose by LKR 49 million to LKR 80 million. For a bank, gross margin is not a meaningful reported measure. Operating margin widened from 3.9% to 10.9%, while net margin moved from a 0.5% loss to a 4.6% profit. The recovery therefore came from improved profitability on a smaller revenue base.

The LKR 46 million gap between operating and net profit shows that tax, finance costs and other non-operating items still took more than half of quarterly operating profit. The latest audited year, ended December 2025, still recorded a LKR 93 million net loss and a -1.2% return on equity.

The 22 September report has moved beyond the June filing, reporting first-half profit after tax of LKR 105 million. Its reported figures should not be mixed into the filed quarterly margins, but they confirm that the June-quarter return to profit was followed by a profitable half-year.

Risks

The principal balance-sheet risk is lender leverage: total liabilities were 7.4 times equity at the latest audited year-end. That ratio was broadly unchanged from 7.45 times a year earlier, but it means a relatively small change in asset quality or funding costs can have a meaningful effect on the equity attributable to shareholders.

Earnings recovery is also fragile because the audited year remained loss-making and the latest profitable quarter generated only LKR 34 million of net profit. Sector conditions were uneven as at 23 September, with Treasury-bill yields rising after an extended decline and the rupee weakening; these are banking-sector conditions, not company-specific events. Limited trading turnover is a separate practical risk for building or exiting a meaningful position.

Outlook

As at 23 September 2026, the next defined catalyst is the September interim quarter, expected to be filed between 6 and 14 November. It will show whether the first-half return to profitability reported on 22 September extended into the next quarter, or whether it was concentrated in the half-year result already disclosed.

The available data cannot show the composition of the reported first-half profit or whether changing Treasury-market conditions have affected HDFC's funding costs. No dividend, corporate action or other dated company event is currently on record.

About this report. Generated on Sep 23, 2026 from market data up to Sep 23, 2026, 6 material news articles over 90 days and financials to Jun 30, 2026, and scored 29 of 100 on value (moderately overvalued) when it was written. Every figure is drawn from EquityLK's own data on this company. AI research can contain errors, so treat it as a starting point, not investment advice.

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