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National Development Bank PLC: research report

UndervaluedneutralAug 27, 2026

NDB's latest group quarter shows strong operating improvement, but a reported LKR 13.58 billion fraud investigation dominates the risk picture.

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Why balanced

  • Q2 operating profit grew 24.1% year-on-year, showing stronger core earnings momentum.
  • Operating margin ranked the best of 8 comparable June quarters at 47.2%.
  • P/E of 3.94 is in the cheapest 10% of the finance sector.

Against this. Deloitte's interim review identified approximately LKR 13.58 billion in suspicious transactions, creating a governance and balance-sheet overhang.

Operating margin
47.2%sector 40.4%
from 41.2% a year earlier
Net margin
24.6%sector 17.8%
from 20.5% a year earlier, revenue +8.5%
Return on equity
12.9%sector 13.0%
full year to Dec 31, 2025
P/E
3.9sector 6.9
earnings Rs 27.83 per share
P/B
0.55sector 0.94
book Rs 199.00 per share
Dividend yield
7.74%sector 2.16%
30.5% of earnings paid out

Current figures, updated daily from filings to Jun 30, 2026. The report below was written on Aug 27, 2026. Sector figures are the median of 54 listed companies in the same sector.

Overview

NDB is a listed commercial bank serving retail, SME and corporate customers, with subsidiaries covering capital markets, investment banking, stock broking and fund management. The latest quarter marked a clear improvement in operating performance, while the unresolved fraud investigation remains the defining issue for the group.

Price performance

NDB closed at LKR 111 on 25 August 2026. Over one year, the share fell 21.6% while the ASPI gained 6.8%, and over six months it fell 28.1% against a 10.9% ASPI decline.

The share sits at 9.2% of its 52-week range, close to its recent low. Recent volatility was 46.0% below its own one-year level, while 20-day volume was 25.6% below the 60-day average, indicating quieter trading rather than a broad increase in activity.

Valuation

NDB trades at a P/E of 3.94 and a P/B of 0.56, ranking in the cheapest 10% and 15% of finance-sector peers respectively. Annual ROE was 12.9%, which provides some earnings support for the discount to book value.

The dividend yield is 7.6%, in the sector's top 12%. The payout has increased across the two latest recorded financial years, from LKR 7.84 per share in FY2024 to LKR 8.47 in FY2025, rather than representing a steadily shrinking distribution.

News and sentiment

Coverage was material but negative overall: 15 articles in the 90-day window comprised 8 negative, 5 positive and 2 neutral reports. The fraud investigation, shareholder legal action and oversight concerns outweighed the positive Q2 earnings coverage.

Coverage was unusually quiet in the latest 30-day period, with 1 article versus the company's baseline of 10.7 per month. The confirmed FY2025 dividend ex-date was 27 March 2026; a LKR 2.04 per-share scrip component was declared on 18 March 2026, but its ex-date remains unset.

Financials

For the group quarter ended 30 June 2026, revenue grew 8.5% year-on-year to LKR 12.98 billion, while operating profit rose 24.1% to LKR 6.12 billion and net profit increased 30.0% to LKR 3.19 billion. The latest filing has no gross margin reported. Operating margin widened from 41.2% to 47.2%, and net margin from 20.5% to 24.6%.

The operating margin was the best of 8 comparable June quarters and the net margin ranked second of 8, placing the print among NDB's strongest like-for-like June results. The LKR 2.93 billion gap between operating and net profit shows that finance costs, tax, associates and foreign-exchange effects still remove a substantial portion of operating earnings.

Group equity attributable to owners was LKR 86.01 billion, while the share count was 432.2 million. The share count includes 5.3 million ordinary voting shares issued and listed on 10 April 2026 as part of the scrip distribution, so per-share comparisons require the restated share basis. July news also reported standalone Q2 profit of LKR 3.01 billion and first-half profit of LKR 4.83 billion after recognising LKR 2.55 billion of fraud-related losses; these are newer reported figures and are not mixed with the group-quarter metrics above.

Risks

The most important risk is the fraud and its governance consequences: the interim forensic review identified LKR 13.58 billion of suspicious transactions, while shareholders have sought court leave to sue the board. The final financial and control implications are not established by the preliminary findings.

Funding leverage is also significant. At 31 December 2025, total debt was LKR 125.41 billion, equal to 136.3% of owners' equity, and interest cover was only 0.44 times. A current ratio and cash conversion measure are not reported for this bank because those measures do not describe a lender's deposit and lending flows. Sector-wide slower lending growth and tighter compliance requirements add pressure to credit expansion and operating controls.

Outlook

As at 27 August 2026, the next scheduled information point is the group filing for the quarter ending 30 September 2026, expected from 10 November 2026 to 26 January 2027. That filing will show whether the strong June operating result was sustained and how the fraud-related charges and controls are reflected in reported earnings.

The declared LKR 2.04 per-share scrip component remains without an ex-date as at the report date, so its timing is not yet known. Falling Treasury yields and surplus money-market liquidity are supportive sector conditions for banks, but slower lending growth and higher compliance demands remain relevant constraints. The available data cannot establish the final fraud loss, recovery or governance outcome.

About this report. Generated on Aug 27, 2026 from market data up to Aug 25, 2026, 15 material news articles over 90 days and financials to Jun 30, 2026. Every figure is drawn from EquityLK's own data on this company. AI research can contain errors, so treat it as a starting point, not investment advice.

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