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Ex-Pack Corrugated Cartons PLC: research report

Moderately undervaluedbearishAug 8, 2026

Ex-Pack moved into a quarterly operating loss even as revenue grew 11.2% year-on-year. Debt and weak cash generation make recovery harder to underwrite.

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Why bearish

  • Operating margin fell to -3.0% from 9.5% in the latest quarter, the weakest of its five comparable March quarters.
  • Debt reached LKR 4.76 billion, with gearing at 118.2% of owners' equity and interest cover of only 0.77 times.
  • The share fell 23.0% over one year while operating cash conversion was negative at -0.5 times.

Against this. The stock trades at a P/B of 0.97 versus the manufacturing sector median of 1.81.

Operating margin
4.1%sector 11.3%
from 6.4% a year earlier
Net margin
-0.3%sector 6.3%
from 1.6% a year earlier, revenue +13.5%
Return on equity
7.0%sector 11.4%
full year to Mar 31, 2026
P/E
12.4sector 12.0
earnings Rs 0.84 per share
P/B
0.86sector 1.63
book Rs 12.05 per share
Dividend yield
3.56%sector 2.05%
44.0% of earnings paid out

Current figures, updated daily from filings to Jun 30, 2026. The report below was written on Aug 8, 2026. Sector figures are the median of 29 listed companies in the same sector.

Overview

Ex-Pack manufactures corrugated cartons, pallets and specialised packaging for domestic and export customers across food, apparel, pharmaceuticals, tea and other industries. Its latest reported quarter showed revenue resilience but a sharp deterioration in profitability, leaving the investment case dependent on restoring operating margins while managing a more heavily leveraged balance sheet.

Price performance

The share closed at LKR 11.70 on 2026-08-07. It fell 14.0% over three months against a 7.1% decline in the ASPI, and was down 23.0% over one year while the index gained 9.5%; the data provides no company news explaining that divergence.

The price sat at just 2.4% of its 52-week range, only 0.9% above the low. Recent annualised volatility was 32.6%, 3.6 percentage points above its own one-year norm, while 20-day volume was only 1.3% above its 60-day average. This indicates weak price performance with somewhat busier trading, not a market-wide move alone.

Valuation

Ex-Pack trades at 13.88 times earnings, above the manufacturing sector median of 12.51 and at the sector's 64th P/E percentile. Its P/B of 0.97 is much lower than the sector median of 1.81 and sits at the 23rd percentile, consistent with the company's modest 7.0% annual ROE rather than a premium profitability profile.

The 4.0% dividend yield is at the sector's 82nd percentile, but the payout direction is less supportive: dividend per share was LKR 0.67 in FY2024, LKR 0.62 in FY2025 and LKR 0.47 in FY2026. The latest financial year may still be incomplete, so the recent decline should not yet be treated as a confirmed cut.

News and sentiment

Coverage was normal over the 90-day window, with one material article recorded as positive and no negative or neutral articles in the sentiment split. Company disclosures included a May 2026 board appointment, a March 2026 second interim dividend and an enforcement-action notice under CSE listing rules.

The latest confirmed dividend had an ex-date of 2026-03-27 and payment date of 2026-04-21. No undated corporate actions are currently recorded.

Financials

The March 2026 quarter was historically weak. Revenue grew 11.2% year-on-year, but gross margin contracted to 14.9% from 23.6%, operating margin fell to -3.0% from 9.5%, and net margin declined to -0.2% from 2.6%. Operating and net profit both fell into losses, with operating profit down LKR 328 million and net profit down LKR 73 million. Operating margin and net margin were each the worst of five comparable March quarters; gross margin ranked fourth of five, among the worst.

For the full year, revenue fell 1.0% and net profit declined 38.0% to LKR 281 million, producing a 7.0% ROE. Equity increased to LKR 4.03 billion from LKR 3.43 billion, while the share count remained 333.3 million, so the weaker EPS was not caused by a reported change in shares outstanding.

The latest quarter's below-the-line items improved the result by LKR 78 million because the net loss was smaller than the operating loss. That did not offset the operating deterioration. These figures cover the period ending 2026-03-31 and are historical relative to the current reporting date.

Risks

The largest risk is financing strain. Total debt rose to LKR 4.76 billion from LKR 3.34 billion, lifting gearing from 97.3% to 118.2% of owners' equity. Interest cover fell from 4.17 times to 0.77 times, leaving operating profit below the annual finance charge.

Liquidity is also tight, with a current ratio of 0.97. Operating cash conversion was negative at -0.5 times and free cash flow was negative LKR 862 million, so reported earnings are not translating into cash for debt reduction or investment. Manufacturing-sector reports also point to labour shortages and higher energy and input-cost pressure, which matter to a packaging producer even though they are not company-specific findings.

Outlook

As at 2026-08-08, the next filing covers the quarter ending 2026-06-30 and is due now, with the exchange timing range running from 2026-07-28 to 2026-10-26. That filing is the next event capable of showing whether the March operating loss was temporary or part of a continuing margin breakdown; the current data cannot resolve that question.

Lower market interest rates could reduce financing pressure for a leveraged company, but the latest reported interest cover of 0.77 times shows that operating recovery remains necessary before lower rates alone would materially repair coverage. Sector-wide exporter and manufacturing conditions remain mixed, with policy support alongside labour and input-cost pressure.

About this report. Generated on Aug 8, 2026 from market data up to Aug 7, 2026, 1 material news articles over 90 days and financials to Mar 31, 2026. Every figure is drawn from EquityLK's own data on this company. AI research can contain errors, so treat it as a starting point, not investment advice.

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