Market seasonality
Mar is the market's weakest month at -4.7%, and Sep its strongest at +3.6%.
Every year, month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +5.3 | -0.3 | -11.2 | +7.0 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -5.1 | +1.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | +7.4 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -0.1 | +6.7 | +7.0 | +9.0 | +6.9 | +3.7 | +4.7 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | -3.2 | +3.3 | +7.4 | +8.0 | -2.1 | +0.3 | -6.1 | -4.7 | +9.1 | +7.7 | +3.3 | +20.9 |
| 2023 | +4.4 | +3.6 | +1.2 | -3.4 | -4.8 | +10.4 | +20.6 | -2.4 | +2.0 | -6.1 | -0.5 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | +6.4 | -11.0 | -23.1 | -14.4 | +6.3 | -9.4 | +5.3 | +17.3 | +9.5 | -13.4 | +0.6 | -1.9 |
| 2021 | +28.7 | -14.3 | -4.7 | +1.2 | +2.7 | +5.9 | +3.6 | +10.8 | +5.1 | +7.4 | +12.6 | +6.9 |
| 2020 | -3.3 | -5.7 | -18.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +6.2 | -0.5 | +4.0 | +12.3 | -4.3 | +9.0 | +8.5 |
| 2019 | -1.0 | -2.9 | -4.5 | -1.4 | -3.1 | +1.2 | +10.5 | -0.8 | -2.6 | +4.4 | +3.7 | -1.3 |
| 2018 | +1.7 | +1.2 | -1.1 | +0.8 | -2.0 | -3.2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -3.6 | +1.6 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | -1.5 | +0.0 | -1.2 | +9.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | -1.6 | -3.7 | +0.7 | +2.8 | -3.1 | -0.7 |
| 2016 | -8.0 | -2.3 | -1.9 | +7.3 | +0.5 | -4.1 | +1.8 | +2.1 | +0.1 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | -1.6 | +1.7 | -6.6 | +5.3 | +0.6 | -2.8 | +4.4 | -0.3 | -3.5 | -0.1 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | +5.7 | -4.9 | +0.5 | +4.3 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +6.8 | +3.2 | +3.1 | +1.0 | -2.4 | +2.0 |
| 2013 | +3.1 | -3.1 | +1.8 | +3.8 | +8.6 | -5.3 | -1.4 | -3.4 | -0.5 | +2.6 | -3.0 | +2.4 |
| 2012 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -10.8 | +2.8 | -0.4 | +4.8 | +15.3 | -7.7 | -2.9 | +5.5 |
| Average | +3.1 | -2.7 | -4.7 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +3.1 | +2.3 | +3.6 | -0.1 | +1.0 | +3.0 |
| Median | +2.4 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +2.5 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +1.3 | +2.5 | +1.3 | -0.5 | +0.6 |
| % up | 57% | 36% | 29% | 64% | 57% | 60% | 53% | 53% | 71% | 57% | 43% | 57% |
Total returns, since 2012. Average is suppressed for a month with fewer than 5 years behind it.
Breadth by month
Share of listed stocks that rose. February and March are weak right across the board, not through a handful of large caps.
Is the March pattern real?
The evidence, and where it stops.Is March just global?
A weak month regionally, but the ASPI's depth is the outlier. Average March since 2012.
How solid is thisMarch · significant, p = 0.001
This month. August is within normal variation. Only March stands out across the whole calendar: it clears a permutation test of 5,000 calendar reshuffles (p = 0.001), has fallen in 11 of the last 15 years, and still averages -3.9% after dropping its best and worst year. February is within what testing twelve months turns up by luck.
Still, that is fifteen observations a month, two of them the exchange's largest shocks. A seasonal tendency is not a forecast, and nothing here is advice to buy or sell.