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Windforce PLC: research report

OvervaluedbearishSep 20, 2026

Evidence points bearish because the shares trade on 36.2 times trailing profit despite June margins being the weakest of six comparable June quarters. The counterweight is a 100 MW solar development that is large beside the existing portfolio.

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Why bearish

  • The P/E is 36.2 times, more expensive than every day before 2026 and all but 73 days since April 2021.
  • June net margin fell to 33.4% and was the worst of six comparable June quarters.
  • Total debt rose to LKR 22.3 billion by June 2026, increasing financing demands while major projects are being developed.

Against this. The IFC-backed 100 MW solar project is substantial relative to WindForce's roughly 268 MW renewable portfolio.

Operating margin
42.5%sector 34.5%
from 47.7% a year earlier
Net margin
33.4%sector 20.7%
from 39.2% a year earlier, revenue +23.4%
Return on equity
5.8%
twelve months to Jun 30, 2026, unaudited
P/E
35.7sector 24.7
earnings Rs 1.12 per share
P/B
2.07sector 1.86
book Rs 19.29 per share
Dividend yield
0.00%sector 1.43%
trailing twelve months

Current figures, updated daily from filings to Jun 30, 2026. The report below was written on Sep 20, 2026. Sector figures are the median of 11 listed companies in the same sector.

Overview

WindForce owns and develops wind, solar, hydro and battery-storage assets, while also providing EPC and operations services. The key change is its move from generation into grid-scale storage: the company has commissioned its first BESS facility and a floating solar plant, while retaining a larger utility-scale solar development pipeline.

Price performance

At LKR 40.50 on 18 September 2026, the share had fallen 9.8% over three months, compared with a 5.9% fall in the ASPI over the same period. Its one-year return was 31.2%, ahead of the index's 0.7%, so the recent retreat follows a much stronger prior year.

The price sits 49.0% through its 52-week range and 23.6% below its high. Sixty-day volatility was below its own one-year norm, while 20-day volume was higher than the preceding 60-day level. The three-year record includes one fall of 15% or more, reaching 27.2% and not yet recovering.

Median daily turnover was LKR 3.0 million. A LKR 1 million order is about 33% of what trades on a typical day, a large part of a day's trading.

Valuation

The P/E is 36.2 times, meaning the market price represents about LKR 36 for every LKR 1 of trailing profit, while the P/B of 2.1 times represents LKR 2.10 for each LKR 1 of net assets. Both sit above their sector medians, placing WindForce in the upper quarter of peers on P/E and upper third on P/B. Its trailing ROE is 5.8%, so the valuation is not supported by a correspondingly high return on owners' capital.

WindForce is more expensive than every day before 2026 and all but 73 days since April 2021 on P/E; on P/B it is more expensive than 81% of days since April 2021. A buyer at this price is relying heavily on the latest quarter, which supplied 49.9% of trailing EPS; if that quarter had earned its year-ago net margin, the P/E would be 33.3 times.

The current dividend yield is zero. The recorded payout was steady in the last two financial years, but the February 2025 ex-date has passed, so a buyer today does not receive that LKR 1.00 dividend.

News and sentiment

Company coverage was normal rather than unusually loud, with 8 articles in the last 30 days against a monthly baseline of 4.7. Within the 90-day material-news set, 9 articles were positive, 4 negative and 1 neutral.

News reported on 18 September that WindForce commissioned a 10 MW/40 MWh BESS with Vidullanka and a 5 MW floating solar plant expected to generate about 9 GWh a year. The BESS is the first of 13 facilities totalling 130 MW/520 MWh, but the available reports do not disclose WindForce's earnings share or project revenue. Separately, IFC agreed financing of up to US$18 million for the 100 MW Siyambalanduwa solar project and other renewable investments. The proposed LKR 4 billion debenture was postponed, with the rating withdrawn after the company chose not to issue amid higher market rates.

Financials

For the June 2026 quarter, revenue rose 23.4% to LKR 2.6 billion and net profit rose 5.1% to LKR 875 million. Operating profit grew 10.1%, slower than revenue, so the additional sales converted into less operating profit than a year earlier. The LKR 239.6 million gap between operating and net profit also widened from the comparable quarter, indicating that finance costs, tax, associates and other items continued to absorb earnings.

Gross margin was 55.7% versus 61.8% a year earlier, operating margin was 42.5% versus 47.7%, and net margin was 33.4% versus 39.2%. The June gross and net margins were the worst of six comparable June quarters, while operating margin ranked among the worst at fifth of six. This makes the quarter profitable but weaker in conversion than the prior June result.

Group equity rose to LKR 32.1 billion from LKR 27.3 billion a year earlier. The latest balance sheet used 1.3547 billion shares, compared with 1.3507 billion a year earlier, so the improvement in absolute profit was not materially distorted by a large share-count change. Minority shareholders received 28.4% of audited FY2026 group profit, meaning group profit is materially larger than the profit attributable to the shares being valued.

These are historical figures through 30 June 2026. The BESS and floating-solar commissioning reported in September occurred after that filing, and no newer financial result is available in the supplied news.

Risks

Funding and execution are the leading risks. Total debt was LKR 22.3 billion at June 2026, up from LKR 12.4 billion at the March audited balance sheet, while the company is developing a 100 MW solar project and a national storage programme. The March gearing ratio was 48.9%, meaning debt equalled about 49 cents for each rupee of owners' equity.

Interest cover was 2.72 times at March 2026, meaning operating profit covered the interest bill fewer than three times. This leaves less room for higher financing costs or weaker project cash generation. The current ratio was 2.79 times, so short-term assets, including receivables and project-related balances, exceeded bills due within a year.

Cash conversion was 0.55 times in FY2026 and free cash flow was negative LKR 216 million. In everyday terms, only about 55 cents of operating cash flow arrived for each rupee of operating profit, while capital spending exceeded cash generated. The current macro backdrop of rising local yields and a weaker rupee adds financing uncertainty, although it cannot establish a company-specific impact.

Outlook

As at 20 September 2026, the next identified event is the September interim filing, expected between 6 and 14 November. It should show whether the June margin compression persisted and provide the first reported financial evidence after the BESS grid connection and floating-solar commissioning.

The disclosed project announcements establish additional capacity and financing, but not the revenue, margins, ownership share or commissioning timetable for the broader BESS rollout. The supplied data therefore cannot yet quantify how much the storage programme or 100 MW solar development adds to earnings.

About this report. Generated on Sep 20, 2026 from market data up to Sep 18, 2026, 14 material news articles over 90 days and financials to Jun 30, 2026, and scored 13 of 100 on value (overvalued) when it was written. Every figure is drawn from EquityLK's own data on this company. AI research can contain errors, so treat it as a starting point, not investment advice.

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